`What I was going to say,’ said the Dodo in an offended tone, `was, that the best thing to get us dry would be a Caucus-race.’
`What is a Caucus-race?’ said Alice; not that she wanted much to know, but the Dodo had paused as if it thought that somebody ought to speak, and no one else seemed inclined to say anything.
`Why,’ said the Dodo, `the best way to explain it is to do it.’ (And, as you might like to try the thing yourself, some winter day, I will tell you how the Dodo managed it.)
First it marked out a race-course, in a sort of circle, (`the exact shape doesn’t matter,’ it said,) and then all the party were placed along the course, here and there. There was no `One, two, three, and away,’ but they began running when they liked, and left off when they liked, so that it was not easy to know when the race was over. However, when they had been running half an hour or so, and were quite dry again, the Dodo suddenly called out `The race is over!’ and they all crowded round it, panting, and asking, `But who has won?’*
If confronted with a caucus, I’m not even sure I could survive without a map and a compass. That being said, I’m pretty sure that the results of a caucus resemble well enough those of a straight-up primary. And so, I’ll go ahead and make my calls for this evening’s caucuses in Iowa. Or cauci. Whatever.
Republicators. Romney has spent more money than anyone should at this early stage of the game. The question is … has he spent enough to make the conservatives of Iowa look only at his present and future, ignoring his surprisingly liberal/bipartisan past? I don’t think he has. Huckabee is seeing a massive up-swell of support from the fundamentalist base, but these folks aren’t so much supporting him as they are their own hopes for a furthered agenda based on so-called Christian Values. Guiliani has written-off Iowa, so Iowa will return the favor. And even though I saw more than a few Thompson stickers this week while driving in Tennessee — don’t these people remember just how much he didn’t do for them as a Senator? — he’ll finish at fourth at best. And for Thompson, a fourth place finish in Iowa spells the end of Freddie’s Magical Mystery Election Tour. This leaves us with McCain. Iowans dig McCain, though I suspect this is another case of falling for the ideal rather than the person. Today’s McCain is not 2000’s pre-SC McCain.
So here’s my rundown:
- Romney
- McCain
- Huckabee
Democratoas. I refuse to believe in Hillary The Inevitable, but she has a certain undeniable charm. That charm is 6’1″ and his name is Bill. And before anyone gets on my case about how I’m not recognizing her viability as a proud female candidate, one standing alone for her gender, I’d ask you to first send your letters of complaint to her own “Don’t you miss 1996?” campaign managers. That being said, Clinton is a powerful candidate and, much like Romney, has spent a lot of cash leading up to tonight. Her strength is rivaled only by Obama. Obama is capturing the starry-eyed hopes and dreams of so many that are so weary from seven years of American Idiocy. Even on the fence Republicans are looking toward Obama because of everything and everyone he isn’t. Edwards stands to do fairly well in Iowa, but only just. He just doesn’t have the media attention circus of Hillary or the lassoed imagination pool of Obama. But the supporters he has are loyal and tenacious. Richardson has a better resume than any candidate on either side, but none of the leverage. I’m positive there will be a place for Richardson in the next White House admin, but it won’t be the driver’s seat. Biden? Like Edwards, he has some very loyal and intelligent fans, but not nearly enough, I fear. What about Kucinich? Dodd? Dennis and Chris are in positions that allow them to stay in the race with little hope of winning, while expressing opinions that make the other candidates squeamish. There’s a power in that.
Likely top three for tonight?
- Obama
- Clinton
- Edwards
(And yes, I’ll admit that my first and second could just as easily switch — and probably will through the night. But Edwards the third? No doubt.)
This question the Dodo could not answer without a great deal of thought, and it sat for a long time with one finger pressed upon its forehead (the position in which you usually see Shakespeare, in the pictures of him), while the rest waited in silence. At last the Dodo said, `Everybody has won, and all must have prizes.’
For other local takes on Iowa: here, here and here.
Addendum: No, I didn’t forget Pro-Pot Presidential Candidate Ron Paul. Instead, I’m just looking into the future, toward the day when all of his followers reach Atlas Shrugged critical mass and rebuild him into the third-party candidate of their feverish dreams.